In the second half of this year, the mixed aromatic hydrocarbon market saw a rebound, and the price continued to rise sharply. At present, the price has risen to 6,500 yuan (ton price, same below), which is more than 50% higher than the lowest price of 4,200 yuan in June. The author believes that there are three important factors supporting the price rise of mixed aromatic hydrocarbons.
First, the situation in the Persian gulf has led to an increase in raw material prices.
Drone strikes and fires at two Saudi oil facilities recently led to the suspension of nearly 5.7 million barrels a day of crude production, 50 percent of Saudi Arabia's current production and 5 percent of the world's daily oil consumption. The move triggered short-term fluctuations in international crude oil prices. The price of brent crude jumped nearly 20 percent at the start of trading on September 16, the biggest gain in 28 years. U.S. WTI crude oil futures also rose as much as 15 percent. Although the international oil price has fallen recently, but the Middle East situation has not eliminated the concerns of the industry.
Strong crude oil prices have given a boost to the mixed aromatics market. At present, the business focus of mixed aromatic hydrocarbon merchants has changed from "shipment priority" to "profit maximization" in the first half of the year. Strong oil prices for most businesses is a good opportunity to push up, the price increase in the general range of 200 to 350 yuan. After the price of mixed aromatic hydrocarbon rose sharply, driven by the mentality of "buy up, don't buy down", most buyers began to buy on a large scale, which greatly enhanced the confidence of merchants and continued to push up the price.
Second, refinery maintenance leads to tight market supply.
Since June, more refineries have been closed for maintenance in China, resulting in reduced supply of mixed aromatic hydrocarbons.
Specifically, shandong jincheng petrochemical, yongxin energy affected by the early stage of the typhoon, still unable to operate normally; Qicheng petrochemical also advance into maintenance; Some refinery units are still down. Northwest yulin refining, northeast dalian jinyuan, liaoning yuan tai is still not started. Refinery maintenance increased, resulting in domestic mixed aromatics supply side reduction, it is logical to drive up the price.
Three is the "gold nine silver ten" demand season approaching
Domestic mixed aromatics are mainly used as blending materials for gasoline. Since September, with the end of hot and rainy weather, the utilization rate of industrial, mining, infrastructure and other projects has been improved, and the volume of logistics transportation has also increased. The demand for gasoline and diesel has been rising steadily. In addition, the traditional consumption season of "gold, nine silver and ten" is quietly approaching. The gasoline market is driven by the holiday, and the vehicle travel radius increases and the demand rises.
Affected by this, recently as a gasoline blending raw materials mixed aromatic hydrocarbon demand peaked. Operators actively carry out operations around pre-holiday stocking and post-holiday replenishment, making the demand side strong and giving strong support to the price of mixed aromatics. In addition, this month, two concentrated replenishment led to a large release of inventory, merchants shipping pressure eased, the price was immediately increased.